In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook the IMF projects Botswana’s economy to grow 4.4% in 2026, slightly below the 4.7% it forecast in April, after a 0.7% contraction in 2025 driven by the slowdown in diamond mining.
The Fund raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 5.1% to 7.2% and for 2027 from 5.7% to 7.4%, and expects inflation to stay above the central bank’s objective range. It describes its outlook as cautious and names the cost of living as the main concern, with persistent inflation squeezing household purchasing power.
The growth forecast is more optimistic than government’s own 3.1% budget projection, reflecting the diamond market’s partial recovery in the second half of the year and the fiscal measures taken in the 2026/27 budget.
Government’s own planning remains more conservative, and diamond volatility and fuel-price inflation are the main downside risks.
What this means for you
- Use a 3% to 4.5% growth range in 2027 budgets rather than a single point.
- Retailers and consumer lenders should plan for weaker real household income through 2027.
- Exporters should watch the pula: higher inflation than trading partners puts pressure on the crawling peg.
If any of these points apply to your organisation, talk to us. We will tell you what needs to change and what it will take.
International Monetary Fund: Botswana
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026
Published 26 October 2026. This article is general information, not advice for a specific situation.